NFL Elo Power Rankings 2024
This is the 2024-ONLY "Blank Slate" page
The ratings and rankings on this page do not reflect season-ending
ratings from the previous year. This page uses a new model for the
2024 season optimized for all teams starting each season at a 1500
rating. See
this blog post
for a comparison between this "blank slate" model and the regular
model.
These ratings are likely to be less accurate for predicting future
game outcomes than the regular model, especially toward the beginning
of the season, but some people wanted to see them so here they are.
See the regular 2024 ratings here.
This page shows week-by-week NFL power rankings, based on the
Elo rating system. The
Elo rating system is a fair way to judge to relative strength of
competitors, and is therefore an objective way to create NFL power
rankings.
The Elo rating system is most notably used for rating chess players.
It can be used to calculate the expected winning percentage in a multi-
game chess match, where players with similar ratings are expected to win
or draw about 50% of games against each other. After a match, player ratings
are adjusted based on their actual vs. expected winning percentage.
In applying Elo ratings to football, we consider each game as a series
of drives. If one team "wins" most of the drives within a game, they'll
likely end up with a large margin of victory. If both teams "win" the
same number of drives, the margin of victory will likely be much more
narrow. Therefore, team ratings can be used to calculate an expected margin
of victory for the favored team. After a game, the two teams' Elo ratings
are adjusted based on the actual vs. expected margin of victory. See
the 2024 preseason blog post for more background.
This Elo rating model was tuned by backtesting against NFL games from 2012
through 2023. Over that span it correctly picks winners in more than 66.24% of regular season
games, beating the Vegas straight-up pick rate of 66.17%, and it has a
better regular season pick rate over 8 of those 12 seasons (according to
sportsoddshistory.com).
This model also does well compared to many "experts" on
NFL Pickwatch.
That being said, these ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing
sports betting decisions. This is a simple Elo model derived from a minimal data
set and it does not account for many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes.
The accuracy of this model for past seasons is not necessarily indicative of its
accuracy for the current or future seasons.
Elo rating details:
- An "average" rating is 1500.
- For every game, the better-performing team takes some number of Elo rating points from
its opponent.
- Predictions and rating updates are calculated from:
- margin of victory/defeat,
- home field advantage,
- rest/travel days between games,
- whether an overtime period occurred,
- offseason "parity reset" (reversion to the mean),
- early season shenanigans/uncertainty,
- and of course both teams' ratings.
- The losing team can gain Elo rating points, as long as they perform above expectations.
- The winning team can lose Elo rating points if they perform below expectations.
- Elo ratings do not move much from week to week. This minimizes the overreaction from upsets.
Like all model parameters, this has been carefully adjusted to make the model more accurate.
- Offseason "parity reset": team ratings move a little bit toward the average during the offseason.
- Each week's ratings are based on the previous week's ratings in a chain going back to the start
of the 2010 season — although only the last ~20 games have any impact on current ratings
with the most recent ~10 being by far the most significant. The model looks back to
the 2010 season solely for testing purposes: after allowing for the 2010 and 2011
seasons to play out, the Elo rating model is tested for accuracy against all games since week 1
of the 2012 season.
- While it would be fun to look at historic data,
at this time there is no plan to include 2009 and older seasons in the ratings.
- If you see an unequal number of rating points exchanged after games, it's because ratings
are actually decimal values and are only rounded for display here.
2024 Updates
- 2024 offseason - Offseason improvements:
- After testing millions of models, found an improved model, called "v2.2024.07", that
picks a net 3.5+ more game winners correctly per season (from 2012 through 2023). This
new model is now being used for all season pages. See more details in
this blog post.
- Added "frozen" versions of last year's season pages, as they appeared after the
Super Bowl in February in 2024. See the
2024
season blog post for links to those frozen pages.
- Added the "Season Model Accuracy" section.
- Expanded many of the items in the "Season Stats and Tidbits" section to list all 32 teams.
- Found a separate, better model for the "blank slate" pages where all teams start each
season with a 1500 rating (like the 2024-only page).
2023 Updates
- 2023-11-28 - Improvements to the plumbing behind the scenes, which among
other things now allows for each team's full schedule to be shown in the season
summary section.
- 2023-11-15 - A model update:
- Correctly picks 2,038 game winners (out of 3,124 total games) from 2012w1-2023w10,
where the previous best model picked 2,032 winners.
- Applies a curve to increase the Elo scores earned from small-to-medium margins
of victory, effectively tilting the balance more toward winning in general and away
from large margins of victory. See more details in
this post.
- Increases the "Elo score" earned for a "narrow win" (again, increasing the
importance of wins and decreasing the importance of margin of victory).
- Widens the definition of a "narrow win" and awards a linearly-increasing Elo score
for those.
- Slightly increases the Elo score earned from an overtime victory.
- Slightly increases the value of rest days between games.
- The ratings and rankings change only slightly from the previous model, following 2023w10:
- the Chiefs are now rated ~2 Elo points higher than the Bills, up from <1 point
- the Lions overtake the Bengals in the rankings, moving from 8th to 7th
- the Bengals drop from 7th to 8th
- the Dolphins overtake the Chargers in the rankings, moving from 10th to 9th
- the Chargers drop from 9th to 10th
- the Eagles are now 20 Elo rating points behind the 1st place 49ers, where previously they were 25 points behind
- 2023-11-13 - Added average opponent rating info to team summaries and to
the season "Stats and Tidbids" section.
- 2023-11-07 - A model update:
- Correctly picks 2,024 game winners (out of 3,110 total games) from 2012w1-2023w9,
where the previous best model picked 2,020 winners.
- Uses a larger Elo "k factor" to react more strongly to individual games.
- Decreases the "big win" margin of victory, effectively increasing the importance of
wins and decreasing the importance of margin of victory.
- Slightly increases the strength of the "offseason parity reset."
- Slightly increases the value of rest days between games.
- Ranks teams closer to where a human might rank them after 2023w9:
- the Bills drop from 2nd to 4th
- the Ravens move from 3rd to 2nd
- the Eagles move from 4th to 3rd
- the Dolphins drop from 9th to 11th
- the Lions move from 10th to 9th
- the Jaguars move from 11th to 10th
- Also added the 2010 season, which allows using the 2012 season for backtesting the model.
- 2023-10-31 - Added power rank to season summary tables.
- 2023-10-29 - Added longest Elo hot/cold streaks to season "Stats and Tidbids" section.
- 2023-10-26 - Added new per-team season summaries toward the bottom of the page.
Team names and week numbers are clickable to easily jump around between the power ranking
and season summary sections.
- 2023-10-23 - Added "Stats and Tidbids" section at the bottom of the page. More
coming soon.
- 2023-10-23 - Fixed conversion of expected Elo score to margin of victory football
points in upcoming games. This doesn't affect the model, only the displayed point values.
- 2023-10-16 - A more dramatic model update: team ratings change more rapidly, yet I
was able to optimize the model to pick the same number of game winners as the previous model.
I wrote a little more background on my
blog post.
Changes to the post-week 5 rankings include:
- the Bills drop from 1st to 2nd
- the 49ers move from 2nd to 1st
- the Lions move from 8th to 6th
- the Dolphins move from 11th to 10th
- the Jaguars move from 17th to 14th
- the Jets move from 23rd to 20th
- the Ravens drop from 6th to 9th
- the Saints drop from 10th to 11th
- the Patriots drop from 21st to 26th
Overall, the new model seems to rank the teams closer to where a human would. While both this
new model and the previous model pick 1822 winners correctly out of 2785 games since week 1
of the 2013 season, the previous model has a median "elo score" differential of 0.1152 over
those games, where the new model is slightly higher at 0.1177. I'll continue to test tweaks
to the model.
- 2023-10-11 - Tiny model improvements, and home-vs-away fixes (these fixes don't
alter the current power rankings).
- 2023-10-10 - After lots of feedback on reddit, mostly saying that previous
seasons shouldn't matter so much, I went back to the drawing board to look at the
"offseason parity reset." Moving to a slightly bigger offseason reset appears
to result in rankings that look better to the eye in the early part of the season.
Plus, it increases the accuracy of the model when backtested over all games since 2013:
the median "Elo score" differential decreased from 0.1168 to 0.1158, and the rate of
incorrectly-picked winners decreased from 35.0449% to 34.7935%.
With this
change, the post-week-5 rankings have the Lions moving up from 11th to 8th, the Dolphins
moving up from 13th to 11th, the Jaguars moving from 19th to 17th, and other minor moves.
- 2023-10-09 - Improved handling of bye and offseason weeks for the "prev:" display.
- 2023-10-06 - Added +/- "since last week" fields to the Rank and Elo Rating columns.
- 2023-10-05 - I found some knobs I could adjust in my Elo model that both increased
its accuracy and also made the current (2023 after week 4) rankings look better to my
eye. More adjustments that fulfill both of those requirements could be made
in the future, if any are found. But depending on feedback I receive I'll leave the
Elo rating algorithm to stand pat for now.
These changes increased the rate at
which winners were predicted since 2013 (up to 65% from 64%) and decreased the median
"Elo score" (where a blowout loss is 0.0, a tie is 0.5, and a blowout win is 1.0)
differential between estimated and actual performance from 0.17 to 0.12 (in other words,
the model predicted game score differential more accurately).
As for the "eye
test" improvements, for the rankings following 2023 week 4, the Lions moved up from
21st to 12th, the Dolphins moved up from 17th to 13th, the Patriots moved down from 9th
to 15th, the Packers moved down from 8th to 10th, the Jaguars moved up from 28th to 20th,
the 49ers moved up from 3rd to 2nd, etc.
- 2023-10-05 - Added two more seasons to the model: 2011 and 2012. I realized I
wanted to use 10 full seasons to backtest the Elo rating model, but the first and perhaps
second seasons aren't useful for backtesting because all teams are clustered around the
initial 1500 rating. Now that ratings are initially computed for the 2011 and 2012
seasons, all games from 2013 onward are used for backtesting model updates.
Note: I'll try to update this page weekly during the NFL season, usually on Tuesdays. This data is somewhat manually updated so please bear with me and check back later if I haven't updated things as exepected. If you enjoy reading these power rankings please consider leaving a small tip. Thanks!
Contents
↑ Power Rankings After Week 9, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 8, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 7, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 6, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 5, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 4, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 3, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 2, 2024 Season
↑ Power Rankings After Week 1, 2024 Season
↑ Preseason Power Rankings, 2024 season:
↑ Team Summaries for 2024 Season
↑ Arizona Cardinals
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (+12 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1505
|
avg. lost to rating: 1502
|
avg. remaining rating: 1484
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 21 | at BUF(1500) L 28-34: -6→1494 | 9 | 15 | vs CHI(1531) W 29-9: +24→1506 | 17 | | at LAR |
2 | 7 | vs LAR(1499) W 41-10: +22→1516 | 10 | | vs NYJ | 18 | | vs SF |
3 | 14 | vs DET(1497) L 13-20: -11→1505 | 11 | | (bye) | W | | |
4 | 24 | vs WAS(1491) L 14-42: -24→1481 | 12 | | at SEA | D | | |
5 | 24 | at SF(1521) W 24-23: +8→1489 | 13 | | at MIN | C | | |
6 | 25 | at GB(1519) L 13-34: -16→1473 | 14 | | vs SEA | S | | |
7 | 22 | vs LAC(1523) W 17-15: +7→1480 | 15 | | vs NE | | | |
8 | 21 | at MIA(1448) W 28-27: +2→1482 | 16 | | at CAR | | | |
↑ Atlanta Falcons
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1500 (+4 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1501
|
avg. lost to rating: 1498
|
avg. remaining rating: 1488
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 26 | vs PIT(1500) L 10-18: -12→1488 | 9 | 17 | vs DAL(1480) W 27-21: +3→1502 | 17 | | at WAS |
2 | 19 | at PHI(1506) W 22-21: +7→1495 | 10 | | at NO | 18 | | vs CAR |
3 | 22 | vs KC(1509) L 17-22: -6→1489 | 11 | | at DEN | W | | |
4 | 20 | vs NO(1538) W 26-24: +6→1495 | 12 | | (bye) | D | | |
5 | 18 | vs TB(1516) W 36-30: +2→1497 | 13 | | vs LAC | C | | |
6 | 15 | at CAR(1446) W 38-20: +15→1512 | 14 | | at MIN | S | | |
7 | 19 | vs SEA(1484) L 14-34: -22→1490 | 15 | | at LV | | | |
8 | 17 | at TB(1520) W 31-26: +9→1499 | 16 | | vs NYG | | | |
↑ Baltimore Ravens
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1510 (-1 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1524
|
avg. lost to rating: 1480
|
avg. remaining rating: 1512
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 23 | at KC(1500) L 20-27: -8→1492 | 9 | 3 | vs DEN(1539) W 41-10: +22→1550 | 17 | | at HOU |
2 | 25 | vs LV(1486) L 23-26: -6→1486 | 10 | | vs CIN | 18 | | vs CLE |
3 | 19 | at DAL(1496) W 28-25: +6→1492 | 11 | | at PIT | W | | |
4 | 11 | vs BUF(1548) W 35-10: +23→1515 | 12 | | at LAC | D | | |
5 | 11 | at CIN(1496) W 41-38: +2→1517 | 13 | | vs PHI | C | | |
6 | 9 | vs WAS(1530) W 30-23: +8→1525 | 14 | | (bye) | S | | |
7 | 5 | at TB(1535) W 41-31: +15→1540 | 15 | | at NYG | | | |
8 | 12 | at CLE(1456) L 24-29: -12→1528 | 16 | | vs PIT | | | |
↑ Buffalo Bills
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1490 (-37 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1490
|
avg. lost to rating: 1492
|
avg. remaining rating: 1499
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 11 | vs ARI(1500) W 34-28: +6→1506 | 9 | 5 | vs MIA(1446) W 30-27: -9→1547 | 17 | | vs NYJ |
2 | 3 | at MIA(1502) W 31-10: +23→1529 | 10 | | at IND | 18 | | at NE |
3 | 2 | vs JAX(1490) W 47-10: +19→1548 | 11 | | vs KC | W | | |
4 | 5 | at BAL(1492) L 10-35: -23→1525 | 12 | | (bye) | D | | |
5 | 7 | at HOU(1492) L 20-23: -5→1520 | 13 | | vs SF | C | | |
6 | 10 | at NYJ(1506) W 23-20: +4→1524 | 14 | | at LAR | S | | |
7 | 6 | vs TEN(1478) W 34-10: +15→1539 | 15 | | at DET | | | |
8 | 2 | at SEA(1506) W 31-10: +17→1556 | 16 | | vs NE | | | |
↑ Carolina Panthers
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1501 (+47 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1478
|
avg. lost to rating: 1508
|
avg. remaining rating: 1506
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 31 | at NO(1500) L 10-47: -23→1477 | 9 | 32 | vs NO(1464) W 23-22: +8→1423 | 17 | | at TB |
2 | 32 | vs LAC(1514) L 3-26: -21→1456 | 10 | | at NYG | 18 | | at ATL |
3 | 28 | at LV(1491) W 36-22: +21→1477 | 11 | | (bye) | W | | |
4 | 31 | vs CIN(1483) L 24-34: -14→1463 | 12 | | vs KC | D | | |
5 | 32 | at CHI(1501) L 10-36: -17→1446 | 13 | | vs TB | C | | |
6 | 32 | vs ATL(1497) L 20-38: -15→1431 | 14 | | at PHI | S | | |
7 | 32 | at WAS(1522) L 7-40: -13→1418 | 15 | | vs DAL | | | |
8 | 32 | at DEN(1536) L 14-28: -3→1415 | 16 | | vs ARI | | | |
↑ Chicago Bears
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1491 (-20 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1479
|
avg. lost to rating: 1503
|
avg. remaining rating: 1523
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 9 | vs TEN(1500) W 24-17: +8→1508 | 9 | 14 | at ARI(1482) L 9-29: -24→1507 | 17 | | vs SEA |
2 | 13 | at HOU(1505) L 13-19: -6→1502 | 10 | | vs NE | 18 | | at GB |
3 | 16 | at IND(1489) L 16-21: -5→1497 | 11 | | vs GB | W | | |
4 | 16 | vs LAR(1481) W 24-18: +4→1501 | 12 | | vs MIN | D | | |
5 | 10 | vs CAR(1463) W 36-10: +17→1518 | 13 | | at DET | C | | |
6 | 7 | at JAX(1474) W 35-16: +15→1533 | 14 | | at SF | S | | |
7 | 10 | (bye) | 15 | | at MIN | | | |
8 | 8 | at WAS(1535) L 15-18: -2→1531 | 16 | | vs DET | | | |
↑ Cincinnati Bengals
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1488 (-8 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1469
|
avg. lost to rating: 1503
|
avg. remaining rating: 1512
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 25 | vs NE(1500) L 10-16: -9→1491 | 9 | 16 | vs LV(1445) W 41-24: +10→1503 | 17 | | vs DEN |
2 | 21 | at KC(1508) L 25-26: -1→1490 | 10 | | at BAL | 18 | | at PIT |
3 | 25 | vs WAS(1484) L 33-38: -7→1483 | 11 | | at LAC | W | | |
4 | 19 | at CAR(1477) W 34-24: +13→1496 | 12 | | (bye) | D | | |
5 | 21 | vs BAL(1515) L 38-41: -2→1494 | 13 | | vs PIT | C | | |
6 | 16 | at NYG(1493) W 17-7: +14→1508 | 14 | | at DAL | S | | |
7 | 15 | at CLE(1461) W 21-14: +5→1513 | 15 | | at TEN | | | |
8 | 18 | vs PHI(1509) L 17-37: -20→1493 | 16 | | vs CLE | | | |
↑ Cleveland Browns
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (+29 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1519
|
avg. lost to rating: 1498
|
avg. remaining rating: 1517
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 30 | vs DAL(1500) L 17-33: -20→1480 | 9 | 27 | vs LAC(1530) L 10-27: -12→1456 | 17 | | vs MIA |
2 | 24 | at JAX(1498) W 18-13: +8→1488 | 10 | | | 18 | | at BAL |
3 | 27 | vs NYG(1475) L 15-21: -10→1478 | 11 | | at NO | W | | |
4 | 26 | at LV(1471) L 16-20: -2→1476 | 12 | | vs PIT | D | | |
5 | 29 | at WAS(1515) L 13-34: -15→1461 | 13 | | at DEN | C | | |
6 | 27 | at PHI(1489) L 16-20: +0→1461 | 14 | | at PIT | S | | |
7 | 28 | vs CIN(1508) L 14-21: -5→1456 | 15 | | vs KC | | | |
8 | 25 | vs BAL(1540) W 29-24: +12→1468 | 16 | | at CIN | | | |
↑ Dallas Cowboys
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1508 (+11 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1505
|
avg. lost to rating: 1509
|
avg. remaining rating: 1503
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 3 | at CLE(1500) W 33-17: +20→1520 | 9 | 24 | at ATL(1499) L 21-27: -4→1476 | 17 | | at PHI |
2 | 17 | vs NO(1523) L 19-44: -24→1496 | 10 | | vs PHI | 18 | | vs WAS |
3 | 21 | vs BAL(1486) L 25-28: -5→1491 | 11 | | vs HOU | W | | |
4 | 18 | at NYG(1484) W 20-15: +6→1497 | 12 | | at WAS | D | | |
5 | 16 | at PIT(1530) W 20-17: +6→1503 | 13 | | vs NYG | C | | |
6 | 22 | vs DET(1524) L 9-47: -21→1482 | 14 | | vs CIN | S | | |
7 | 21 | (bye) | 15 | | at CAR | | | |
8 | 22 | at SF(1515) L 24-30: -2→1480 | 16 | | vs TB | | | |
↑ Denver Broncos
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (-15 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1485
|
avg. lost to rating: 1513
|
avg. remaining rating: 1504
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 22 | at SEA(1500) L 20-26: -6→1494 | 9 | 12 | at BAL(1528) L 10-41: -21→1518 | 17 | | at CIN |
2 | 26 | vs PIT(1512) L 6-13: -10→1484 | 10 | | at KC | 18 | | vs KC |
3 | 11 | at TB(1522) W 26-7: +24→1508 | 11 | | vs ATL | W | | |
4 | 12 | at NYJ(1516) W 10-9: +6→1514 | 12 | | at LV | D | | |
5 | 4 | vs LV(1473) W 34-18: +13→1527 | 13 | | vs CLE | C | | |
6 | 13 | vs LAC(1512) L 16-23: -11→1516 | 14 | | (bye) | S | | |
7 | 7 | at NO(1497) W 33-10: +20→1536 | 15 | | vs IND | | | |
8 | 5 | vs CAR(1418) W 28-14: +3→1539 | 16 | | at LAC | | | |
↑ Detroit Lions
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1515 (-9 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1514
|
avg. lost to rating: 1518
|
avg. remaining rating: 1513
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 16 | vs LAR(1500) W 26-20: +1→1501 | 9 | 1 | at GB(1534) W 24-14: +10→1574 | 17 | | at SF |
2 | 16 | vs TB(1518) L 16-20: -4→1497 | 10 | | at HOU | 18 | | vs MIN |
3 | 10 | at ARI(1516) W 20-13: +12→1509 | 11 | | vs JAX | W | | |
4 | 6 | vs SEA(1528) W 42-29: +15→1524 | 12 | | at IND | D | | |
5 | 5 | (bye) | 13 | | vs CHI | C | | |
6 | 2 | at DAL(1503) W 47-9: +21→1545 | 14 | | vs GB | S | | |
7 | 3 | at MIN(1555) W 31-29: +7→1552 | 15 | | vs BUF | | | |
8 | 1 | vs TEN(1463) W 52-14: +12→1564 | 16 | | at CHI | | | |
↑ Green Bay Packers
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1505 (-13 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1488
|
avg. lost to rating: 1537
|
avg. remaining rating: 1505
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 20 | at PHI(1500) L 29-34: -6→1494 | 9 | 10 | vs DET(1564) L 14-24: -10→1524 | 17 | | at MIN |
2 | 14 | vs IND(1495) W 16-10: +6→1500 | 10 | | (bye) | 18 | | vs CHI |
3 | 7 | at TEN(1481) W 30-14: +19→1519 | 11 | | at CHI | W | | |
4 | 8 | vs MIN(1548) L 29-31: -3→1516 | 12 | | vs SF | D | | |
5 | 8 | at LAR(1476) W 24-19: +3→1519 | 13 | | vs MIA | C | | |
6 | 5 | vs ARI(1489) W 34-13: +16→1535 | 14 | | at DET | S | | |
7 | 8 | vs HOU(1514) W 24-22: +1→1536 | 15 | | at SEA | | | |
8 | 7 | at JAX(1475) W 30-27: -2→1534 | 16 | | vs NO | | | |
↑ Houston Texans
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1501 (-4 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1494
|
avg. lost to rating: 1514
|
avg. remaining rating: 1498
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 14 | at IND(1500) W 29-27: +5→1505 | 9 | 18 | at NYJ(1479) L 13-21: -13→1501 | 17 | | vs BAL |
2 | 8 | vs CHI(1508) W 19-13: +7→1512 | 10 | | vs DET | 18 | | at TEN |
3 | 18 | at MIN(1529) L 7-34: -20→1492 | 11 | | at DAL | W | | |
4 | 21 | vs JAX(1470) W 24-20: +0→1492 | 12 | | vs TEN | D | | |
5 | 19 | vs BUF(1525) W 23-20: +5→1497 | 13 | | at JAX | C | | |
6 | 14 | at NE(1461) W 41-21: +17→1514 | 14 | | | S | | |
7 | 14 | at GB(1535) L 22-24: -0→1514 | 15 | | vs MIA | | | |
8 | 14 | vs IND(1500) W 23-20: +0→1514 | 16 | | at KC | | | |
↑ Indianapolis Colts
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1497 (+1 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1492
|
avg. lost to rating: 1502
|
avg. remaining rating: 1495
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 19 | vs HOU(1500) L 27-29: -5→1495 | 9 | 20 | at MIN(1530) L 13-21: -4→1495 | 17 | | at NYG |
2 | 23 | at GB(1494) L 10-16: -6→1489 | 10 | | vs BUF | 18 | | vs JAX |
3 | 17 | vs CHI(1502) W 21-16: +5→1494 | 11 | | at NYJ | W | | |
4 | 17 | vs PIT(1535) W 27-24: +5→1499 | 12 | | vs DET | D | | |
5 | 20 | at JAX(1470) L 34-37: -5→1494 | 13 | | at NE | C | | |
6 | 18 | at TEN(1482) W 20-17: +4→1498 | 14 | | (bye) | S | | |
7 | 18 | vs MIA(1450) W 16-10: +2→1500 | 15 | | at DEN | | | |
8 | 16 | at HOU(1514) L 20-23: -1→1499 | 16 | | vs TEN | | | |
↑ Jacksonville Jaguars
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (+24 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1471
|
avg. lost to rating: 1512
|
avg. remaining rating: 1491
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 18 | at MIA(1500) L 17-20: -2→1498 | 9 | 23 | at PHI(1530) L 23-28: +3→1479 | 17 | | vs TEN |
2 | 22 | vs CLE(1480) L 13-18: -8→1490 | 10 | | vs MIN | 18 | | at IND |
3 | 30 | at BUF(1529) L 10-47: -20→1470 | 11 | | at DET | W | | |
4 | 29 | at HOU(1492) L 20-24: -0→1470 | 12 | | (bye) | D | | |
5 | 26 | vs IND(1499) W 37-34: +4→1474 | 13 | | vs HOU | C | | |
6 | 28 | at CHI(1518) L 16-35: -15→1459 | 14 | | at TEN | S | | |
7 | 24 | at NE(1443) W 32-16: +16→1475 | 15 | | vs NYJ | | | |
8 | 24 | vs GB(1536) L 27-30: +1→1476 | 16 | | at LV | | | |
↑ Kansas City Chiefs
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (-22 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1503
|
avg. lost to rating: -
|
avg. remaining rating: 1499
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 10 | vs BAL(1500) W 27-20: +8→1508 | 9 | 4 | vs TB(1511) W 30-24: -4→1548 | 17 | | at PIT |
2 | 11 | vs CIN(1491) W 26-25: +1→1509 | 10 | | vs DEN | 18 | | at DEN |
3 | 9 | at ATL(1495) W 22-17: +6→1515 | 11 | | at BUF | W | | |
4 | 4 | at LAC(1523) W 17-10: +10→1525 | 12 | | at CAR | D | | |
5 | 2 | vs NO(1533) W 26-13: +15→1540 | 13 | | vs LV | C | | |
6 | 3 | (bye) | 14 | | vs LAC | S | | |
7 | 2 | at SF(1528) W 28-18: +13→1553 | 15 | | at CLE | | | |
8 | 4 | at LV(1444) W 27-20: -1→1552 | 16 | | vs HOU | | | |
↑ Las Vegas Raiders
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (+30 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1485
|
avg. lost to rating: 1502
|
avg. remaining rating: 1502
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 27 | at LAC(1500) L 10-22: -14→1486 | 9 | 31 | at CIN(1493) L 24-41: -11→1434 | 17 | | at NO |
2 | 20 | at BAL(1492) W 26-23: +5→1491 | 10 | | (bye) | 18 | | vs LAC |
3 | 29 | vs CAR(1456) L 22-36: -20→1471 | 11 | | at MIA | W | | |
4 | 28 | vs CLE(1478) W 20-16: +2→1473 | 12 | | vs DEN | D | | |
5 | 30 | at DEN(1514) L 18-34: -13→1460 | 13 | | at KC | C | | |
6 | 30 | vs PIT(1523) L 13-32: -15→1445 | 14 | | at TB | S | | |
7 | 30 | at LAR(1472) L 15-20: -1→1444 | 15 | | vs ATL | | | |
8 | 30 | vs KC(1553) L 20-27: +1→1445 | 16 | | vs JAX | | | |
↑ Los Angeles Chargers
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1495 (-24 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1490
|
avg. lost to rating: 1503
|
avg. remaining rating: 1495
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 6 | vs LV(1500) W 22-10: +14→1514 | 9 | 6 | at CLE(1468) W 27-10: +12→1542 | 17 | | at NE |
2 | 2 | at CAR(1477) W 26-3: +22→1536 | 10 | | vs TEN | 18 | | at LV |
3 | 6 | at PIT(1522) L 10-20: -13→1523 | 11 | | vs CIN | W | | |
4 | 13 | vs KC(1515) L 10-17: -11→1512 | 12 | | vs BAL | D | | |
5 | 14 | (bye) | 13 | | at ATL | C | | |
6 | 11 | at DEN(1527) W 23-16: +11→1523 | 14 | | at KC | S | | |
7 | 12 | at ARI(1473) L 15-17: -7→1516 | 15 | | vs TB | | | |
8 | 11 | vs NO(1477) W 26-8: +14→1530 | 16 | | vs DEN | | | |
↑ Los Angeles Rams
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1500 (+16 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1498
|
avg. lost to rating: 1502
|
avg. remaining rating: 1492
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 17 | at DET(1500) L 20-26: -1→1499 | 9 | 19 | at SEA(1489) W 26-20: +3→1495 | 17 | | vs ARI |
2 | 30 | at ARI(1494) L 10-41: -23→1476 | 10 | | vs MIA | 18 | | vs SEA |
3 | 26 | vs SF(1510) W 27-24: +5→1481 | 11 | | at NE | W | | |
4 | 27 | at CHI(1497) L 18-24: -5→1476 | 12 | | vs PHI | D | | |
5 | 27 | vs GB(1516) L 19-24: -4→1472 | 13 | | at NO | C | | |
6 | 26 | (bye) | 14 | | vs BUF | S | | |
7 | 25 | vs LV(1445) W 20-15: +1→1473 | 15 | | at SF | | | |
8 | 19 | vs MIN(1549) W 30-20: +19→1492 | 16 | | at NYJ | | | |
↑ Miami Dolphins
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (+32 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1485
|
avg. lost to rating: 1502
|
avg. remaining rating: 1483
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 15 | vs JAX(1500) W 20-17: +2→1502 | 9 | 26 | at BUF(1556) L 27-30: +10→1456 | 17 | | at CLE |
2 | 29 | vs BUF(1506) L 10-31: -22→1480 | 10 | | at LAR | 18 | | at NYJ |
3 | 32 | at SEA(1510) L 3-24: -18→1462 | 11 | | vs LV | W | | |
4 | 32 | vs TEN(1462) L 12-31: -20→1442 | 12 | | vs NE | D | | |
5 | 31 | at NE(1469) W 15-10: +8→1450 | 13 | | at GB | C | | |
6 | 29 | (bye) | 14 | | vs NYJ | S | | |
7 | 29 | at IND(1498) L 10-16: -2→1448 | 15 | | at HOU | | | |
8 | 29 | vs ARI(1480) L 27-28: -2→1446 | 16 | | vs SF | | | |
↑ Minnesota Vikings
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1509 (-27 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1509
|
avg. lost to rating: 1509
|
avg. remaining rating: 1504
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 1 | at NYG(1500) W 28-6: +23→1523 | 9 | 7 | vs IND(1499) W 21-13: +5→1535 | 17 | | vs GB |
2 | 4 | vs SF(1515) W 23-17: +6→1529 | 10 | | at JAX | 18 | | at DET |
3 | 1 | vs HOU(1512) W 34-7: +19→1548 | 11 | | at TEN | W | | |
4 | 1 | at GB(1519) W 31-29: +3→1551 | 12 | | at CHI | D | | |
5 | 1 | at NYJ(1510) W 23-17: +4→1555 | 13 | | vs ARI | C | | |
6 | 1 | (bye) | 14 | | vs ATL | S | | |
7 | 4 | vs DET(1545) L 29-31: -6→1549 | 15 | | vs CHI | | | |
8 | 9 | at LAR(1473) L 20-30: -19→1530 | 16 | | at SEA | | | |
↑ New England Patriots
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1483 (+12 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1494
|
avg. lost to rating: 1479
|
avg. remaining rating: 1512
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 8 | at CIN(1500) W 16-10: +9→1509 | 9 | 30 | at TEN(1451) L 17-20: +1→1436 | 17 | | vs LAC |
2 | 12 | vs SEA(1506) L 20-23: -4→1505 | 10 | | at CHI | 18 | | vs BUF |
3 | 23 | at NYJ(1496) L 3-24: -20→1485 | 11 | | vs LAR | W | | |
4 | 30 | at SF(1505) L 13-30: -16→1469 | 12 | | at MIA | D | | |
5 | 28 | vs MIA(1442) L 10-15: -8→1461 | 13 | | vs IND | C | | |
6 | 31 | vs HOU(1497) L 21-41: -18→1443 | 14 | | (bye) | S | | |
7 | 31 | at JAX(1459) L 16-32: -16→1427 | 15 | | at ARI | | | |
8 | 31 | vs NYJ(1487) W 25-22: +8→1435 | 16 | | at BUF | | | |
↑ New Orleans Saints
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1499 (-11 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1510
|
avg. lost to rating: 1496
|
avg. remaining rating: 1490
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 2 | vs CAR(1500) W 47-10: +23→1523 | 9 | 28 | at CAR(1415) L 22-23: -9→1455 | 17 | | vs LV |
2 | 1 | at DAL(1520) W 44-19: +23→1546 | 10 | | vs ATL | 18 | | at TB |
3 | 3 | vs PHI(1499) L 12-15: -8→1538 | 11 | | vs CLE | W | | |
4 | 2 | at ATL(1489) L 24-26: -5→1533 | 12 | | (bye) | D | | |
5 | 9 | at KC(1525) L 13-26: -15→1518 | 13 | | vs LAR | C | | |
6 | 19 | vs TB(1513) L 27-51: -21→1497 | 14 | | at NYG | S | | |
7 | 23 | vs DEN(1516) L 10-33: -20→1477 | 15 | | vs WAS | | | |
8 | 26 | at LAC(1516) L 8-26: -13→1464 | 16 | | at GB | | | |
↑ New York Giants
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1505 (+27 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1500
|
avg. lost to rating: 1507
|
avg. remaining rating: 1493
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 32 | vs MIN(1500) L 6-28: -23→1477 | 9 | 25 | vs WAS(1537) L 22-27: +3→1462 | 17 | | vs IND |
2 | 31 | at WAS(1482) L 18-21: -2→1475 | 10 | | at CAR | 18 | | at PHI |
3 | 24 | at CLE(1488) W 21-15: +9→1484 | 11 | | (bye) | W | | |
4 | 25 | vs DAL(1491) L 15-20: -6→1478 | 12 | | vs TB | D | | |
5 | 22 | at SEA(1512) W 29-20: +15→1493 | 13 | | at DAL | C | | |
6 | 23 | vs CIN(1494) L 7-17: -14→1479 | 14 | | vs NO | S | | |
7 | 27 | vs PHI(1489) L 3-28: -21→1458 | 15 | | vs BAL | | | |
8 | 27 | at PIT(1553) L 18-26: +1→1459 | 16 | | at ATL | | | |
↑ New York Jets
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1506 (+8 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1504
|
avg. lost to rating: 1507
|
avg. remaining rating: 1490
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 28 | at SF(1500) L 19-32: -15→1485 | 9 | 21 | vs HOU(1514) W 21-13: +13→1492 | 17 | | at BUF |
2 | 18 | at TEN(1492) W 24-17: +11→1496 | 10 | | at ARI | 18 | | vs MIA |
3 | 8 | vs NE(1505) W 24-3: +20→1516 | 11 | | vs IND | W | | |
4 | 15 | vs DEN(1508) L 9-10: -6→1510 | 12 | | (bye) | D | | |
5 | 15 | at MIN(1551) L 17-23: -4→1506 | 13 | | vs SEA | C | | |
6 | 17 | vs BUF(1520) L 20-23: -3→1503 | 14 | | at MIA | S | | |
7 | 20 | at PIT(1538) L 15-37: -16→1487 | 15 | | at JAX | | | |
8 | 23 | at NE(1427) L 22-25: -8→1479 | 16 | | vs LAR | | | |
↑ Philadelphia Eagles
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1495 (-8 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1496
|
avg. lost to rating: 1493
|
avg. remaining rating: 1500
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 13 | at GB(1500) W 34-29: +6→1506 | 9 | 9 | vs JAX(1476) W 28-23: -2→1528 | 17 | | vs DAL |
2 | 15 | vs ATL(1488) L 21-22: -7→1499 | 10 | | at DAL | 18 | | vs NYG |
3 | 12 | at NO(1546) W 15-12: +8→1507 | 11 | | vs WAS | W | | |
4 | 22 | at TB(1498) L 16-33: -18→1489 | 12 | | at LAR | D | | |
5 | 23 | (bye) | 13 | | at BAL | C | | |
6 | 20 | vs CLE(1461) W 20-16: -0→1489 | 14 | | vs CAR | S | | |
7 | 16 | at NYG(1479) W 28-3: +20→1509 | 15 | | vs PIT | | | |
8 | 10 | at CIN(1513) W 37-17: +21→1530 | 16 | | at WAS | | | |
↑ Pittsburgh Steelers
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1493 (-34 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1492
|
avg. lost to rating: 1495
|
avg. remaining rating: 1514
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 7 | at ATL(1500) W 18-10: +12→1512 | 9 | 2 | (bye) | 17 | | vs KC |
2 | 5 | at DEN(1494) W 13-6: +10→1522 | 10 | | at WAS | 18 | | vs CIN |
3 | 4 | vs LAC(1536) W 20-10: +13→1535 | 11 | | vs BAL | W | | |
4 | 3 | at IND(1494) L 24-27: -5→1530 | 12 | | at CLE | D | | |
5 | 6 | vs DAL(1497) L 17-20: -7→1523 | 13 | | at CIN | C | | |
6 | 4 | at LV(1460) W 32-13: +15→1538 | 14 | | vs CLE | S | | |
7 | 1 | vs NYJ(1503) W 37-15: +15→1553 | 15 | | at PHI | | | |
8 | 3 | vs NYG(1458) W 26-18: -0→1553 | 16 | | at BAL | | | |
↑ San Francisco 49ers
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1498 (-15 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1491
|
avg. lost to rating: 1505
|
avg. remaining rating: 1512
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 5 | vs NYJ(1500) W 32-19: +15→1515 | 9 | 11 | (bye) | 17 | | vs DET |
2 | 10 | at MIN(1523) L 17-23: -5→1510 | 10 | | at TB | 18 | | at ARI |
3 | 13 | at LAR(1476) L 24-27: -5→1505 | 11 | | vs SEA | W | | |
4 | 7 | vs NE(1485) W 30-13: +16→1521 | 12 | | at GB | D | | |
5 | 12 | vs ARI(1481) L 23-24: -8→1513 | 13 | | at BUF | C | | |
6 | 8 | at SEA(1498) W 36-24: +15→1528 | 14 | | vs CHI | S | | |
7 | 13 | vs KC(1540) L 18-28: -13→1515 | 15 | | vs LAR | | | |
8 | 13 | vs DAL(1482) W 30-24: +3→1518 | 16 | | at MIA | | | |
↑ Seattle Seahawks
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1504 (0 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1500
|
avg. lost to rating: 1506
|
avg. remaining rating: 1510
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 12 | vs DEN(1500) W 26-20: +6→1506 | 9 | 22 | vs LAR(1492) L 20-26: -3→1486 | 17 | | at CHI |
2 | 9 | at NE(1509) W 23-20: +4→1510 | 10 | | (bye) | 18 | | at LAR |
3 | 5 | vs MIA(1480) W 24-3: +18→1528 | 11 | | at SF | W | | |
4 | 14 | at DET(1509) L 29-42: -16→1512 | 12 | | vs ARI | D | | |
5 | 17 | vs NYG(1478) L 20-29: -14→1498 | 13 | | at NYJ | C | | |
6 | 21 | vs SF(1513) L 24-36: -14→1484 | 14 | | at ARI | S | | |
7 | 17 | at ATL(1512) W 34-14: +22→1506 | 15 | | vs GB | | | |
8 | 20 | vs BUF(1539) L 10-31: -17→1489 | 16 | | vs MIN | | | |
↑ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1508 (-7 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1507
|
avg. lost to rating: 1509
|
avg. remaining rating: 1467
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 4 | vs WAS(1500) W 37-20: +18→1518 | 9 | 13 | at KC(1552) L 24-30: +4→1515 | 17 | | vs CAR |
2 | 6 | at DET(1501) W 20-16: +4→1522 | 10 | | vs SF | 18 | | vs NO |
3 | 15 | vs DEN(1484) L 7-26: -24→1498 | 11 | | (bye) | W | | |
4 | 9 | vs PHI(1507) W 33-16: +18→1516 | 12 | | at NYG | D | | |
5 | 13 | at ATL(1495) L 30-36: -3→1513 | 13 | | at CAR | C | | |
6 | 6 | at NO(1518) W 51-27: +22→1535 | 14 | | vs LV | S | | |
7 | 11 | vs BAL(1525) L 31-41: -15→1520 | 15 | | at LAC | | | |
8 | 15 | vs ATL(1490) L 26-31: -9→1511 | 16 | | at DAL | | | |
↑ Tennessee Titans
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1494 (+18 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1449
|
avg. lost to rating: 1509
|
avg. remaining rating: 1508
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 24 | at CHI(1500) L 17-24: -8→1492 | 9 | 29 | vs NE(1435) W 20-17: -1→1450 | 17 | | at JAX |
2 | 28 | vs NYJ(1485) L 17-24: -11→1481 | 10 | | at LAC | 18 | | vs HOU |
3 | 31 | vs GB(1500) L 14-30: -19→1462 | 11 | | vs MIN | W | | |
4 | 23 | at MIA(1462) W 31-12: +20→1482 | 12 | | at HOU | D | | |
5 | 25 | (bye) | 13 | | at WAS | C | | |
6 | 24 | vs IND(1494) L 17-20: -4→1478 | 14 | | vs JAX | S | | |
7 | 26 | at BUF(1524) L 10-34: -15→1463 | 15 | | vs CIN | | | |
8 | 28 | at DET(1552) L 14-52: -12→1451 | 16 | | at IND | | | |
↑ Washington Commanders
reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1488 (-23 net)
|
avg. beat rating: 1482
|
avg. lost to rating: 1508
|
avg. remaining rating: 1496
|
Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome | Wk | Rk | Outcome |
1 | 29 | at TB(1500) L 20-37: -18→1482 | 9 | 8 | at NYG(1459) W 27-22: -3→1534 | 17 | | vs ATL |
2 | 27 | vs NYG(1477) W 21-18: +2→1484 | 10 | | vs PIT | 18 | | at DAL |
3 | 20 | at CIN(1490) W 38-33: +7→1491 | 11 | | at PHI | W | | |
4 | 10 | at ARI(1505) W 42-14: +24→1515 | 12 | | vs DAL | D | | |
5 | 3 | vs CLE(1476) W 34-13: +15→1530 | 13 | | vs TEN | C | | |
6 | 12 | at BAL(1517) L 23-30: -8→1522 | 14 | | (bye) | S | | |
7 | 9 | vs CAR(1431) W 40-7: +13→1535 | 15 | | at NO | | | |
8 | 6 | vs CHI(1533) W 18-15: +2→1537 | 16 | | vs PHI | | | |
↑ 2024 Season Stats and Tidbits
- Longest Elo Hot Streaks: Consecutive games with an Elo rating increase
- 6 games (weeks 3-9) Detroit Lions: +76 total Elo rating
- 3 games (weeks 7-9) Arizona Cardinals: +33 total Elo rating
- 3 games (weeks 7-9) Los Angeles Rams: +22 total Elo rating
- 3 games (weeks 7-9) Jacksonville Jaguars: +20 total Elo rating
- 2 games (weeks 8-9) Los Angeles Chargers: +25 total Elo rating
- Longest Elo Cold Streaks: Consecutive games with an Elo rating decrease
- 7 games (weeks 3-9) New Orleans Saints: -91 total Elo rating
- 4 games (weeks 6-9) Tennessee Titans: -32 total Elo rating
- 3 games (weeks 6-9) Dallas Cowboys: -27 total Elo rating
- 2 games (weeks 8-9) Chicago Bears: -26 total Elo rating
- 2 games (weeks 8-9) Seattle Seahawks: -20 total Elo rating
- Biggest Elo Upsets: Highest Elo rating disparity between teams
- Week 8, 84-Elo upset: Baltimore Ravens (1540) 6-point favorites at Cleveland Browns (1456): Browns win 29-24
- Week 8, 76-Elo upset: Minnesota Vikings (1549) 6-point favorites at Los Angeles Rams (1473): Rams win 30-20
- Week 8, 60-Elo upset: New York Jets (1487) 5-point favorites at New England Patriots (1427): Patriots win 25-22
- Week 4, 56-Elo upset: Buffalo Bills (1548) Tossup favorites at Baltimore Ravens (1492): Ravens win 35-10
- Week 7, 50-Elo upset: Los Angeles Chargers (1523) Tossup favorites at Arizona Cardinals (1473): Cardinals win 17-15
- Biggest Elo Score Upsets: Highest disparity between expected and actual game outcome
- Week 9, 25-point differential: Chicago Bears (1531) 5-point favorites vs Arizona Cardinals (1482): Cardinals win 29-9
- Week 4, 28-point differential: Arizona Cardinals (1505) Tossup favorites vs Washington Commanders (1491): Commanders win 42-14
- Week 4, 25-point differential: Buffalo Bills (1548) Tossup favorites at Baltimore Ravens (1492): Ravens win 35-10
- Week 7, 20-point differential: Atlanta Falcons (1512) Tossup favorites vs Seattle Seahawks (1484): Seahawks win 34-14
- Week 3, 19-point differential: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1522) Tossup favorites vs Denver Broncos (1484): Broncos win 26-7
- Most Improved Elo on the Season:
- +74: Detroit Lions (1500) before week 1 → (1574) thru week 9
- +53: Pittsburgh Steelers (1500) before week 1 → (1553) thru week 8
- +50: Baltimore Ravens (1500) before week 1 → (1550) thru week 9
- +48: Kansas City Chiefs (1500) before week 1 → (1548) thru week 9
- +47: Buffalo Bills (1500) before week 1 → (1547) thru week 9
more...
- +42: Los Angeles Chargers (1500) before week 1 → (1542) thru week 9
- +35: Minnesota Vikings (1500) before week 1 → (1535) thru week 9
- +34: Washington Commanders (1500) before week 1 → (1534) thru week 9
- +28: Philadelphia Eagles (1500) before week 1 → (1528) thru week 9
- +24: Green Bay Packers (1500) before week 1 → (1524) thru week 9
- +18: San Francisco 49ers (1500) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 8
- +18: Denver Broncos (1500) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 9
- +15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1500) before week 1 → (1515) thru week 9
- +7: Chicago Bears (1500) before week 1 → (1507) thru week 9
- +6: Arizona Cardinals (1500) before week 1 → (1506) thru week 9
- +3: Cincinnati Bengals (1500) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 9
- +2: Atlanta Falcons (1500) before week 1 → (1502) thru week 9
- +1: Houston Texans (1500) before week 1 → (1501) thru week 9
- -5: Los Angeles Rams (1500) before week 1 → (1495) thru week 9
- -5: Indianapolis Colts (1500) before week 1 → (1495) thru week 9
- -8: New York Jets (1500) before week 1 → (1492) thru week 9
- -14: Seattle Seahawks (1500) before week 1 → (1486) thru week 9
- -21: Jacksonville Jaguars (1500) before week 1 → (1479) thru week 9
- -24: Dallas Cowboys (1500) before week 1 → (1476) thru week 9
- -38: New York Giants (1500) before week 1 → (1462) thru week 9
- -44: Miami Dolphins (1500) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 9
- -44: Cleveland Browns (1500) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 9
- -45: New Orleans Saints (1500) before week 1 → (1455) thru week 9
- -50: Tennessee Titans (1500) before week 1 → (1450) thru week 9
- -64: New England Patriots (1500) before week 1 → (1436) thru week 9
- -66: Las Vegas Raiders (1500) before week 1 → (1434) thru week 9
- -77: Carolina Panthers (1500) before week 1 → (1423) thru week 9
- Worst Elo Collapse on the Season:
- -77: Carolina Panthers (1500) before week 1 → (1423) thru week 9
- -66: Las Vegas Raiders (1500) before week 1 → (1434) thru week 9
- -64: New England Patriots (1500) before week 1 → (1436) thru week 9
- -50: Tennessee Titans (1500) before week 1 → (1450) thru week 9
- -45: New Orleans Saints (1500) before week 1 → (1455) thru week 9
more...
- -44: Cleveland Browns (1500) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 9
- -44: Miami Dolphins (1500) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 9
- -38: New York Giants (1500) before week 1 → (1462) thru week 9
- -24: Dallas Cowboys (1500) before week 1 → (1476) thru week 9
- -21: Jacksonville Jaguars (1500) before week 1 → (1479) thru week 9
- -14: Seattle Seahawks (1500) before week 1 → (1486) thru week 9
- -8: New York Jets (1500) before week 1 → (1492) thru week 9
- -5: Indianapolis Colts (1500) before week 1 → (1495) thru week 9
- -5: Los Angeles Rams (1500) before week 1 → (1495) thru week 9
- +1: Houston Texans (1500) before week 1 → (1501) thru week 9
- +2: Atlanta Falcons (1500) before week 1 → (1502) thru week 9
- +3: Cincinnati Bengals (1500) before week 1 → (1503) thru week 9
- +6: Arizona Cardinals (1500) before week 1 → (1506) thru week 9
- +7: Chicago Bears (1500) before week 1 → (1507) thru week 9
- +15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1500) before week 1 → (1515) thru week 9
- +18: Denver Broncos (1500) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 9
- +18: San Francisco 49ers (1500) before week 1 → (1518) thru week 8
- +24: Green Bay Packers (1500) before week 1 → (1524) thru week 9
- +28: Philadelphia Eagles (1500) before week 1 → (1528) thru week 9
- +34: Washington Commanders (1500) before week 1 → (1534) thru week 9
- +35: Minnesota Vikings (1500) before week 1 → (1535) thru week 9
- +42: Los Angeles Chargers (1500) before week 1 → (1542) thru week 9
- +47: Buffalo Bills (1500) before week 1 → (1547) thru week 9
- +48: Kansas City Chiefs (1500) before week 1 → (1548) thru week 9
- +50: Baltimore Ravens (1500) before week 1 → (1550) thru week 9
- +53: Pittsburgh Steelers (1500) before week 1 → (1553) thru week 8
- +74: Detroit Lions (1500) before week 1 → (1574) thru week 9
- Most Improved Elo in 8 or Fewer Games:
- +76: Detroit Lions (1497) before week 3 → (1574) thru week 9
- +63: Baltimore Ravens (1486) before week 3 → (1550) thru week 9
- +56: Buffalo Bills (1500) before week 1 → (1556) thru week 8
- +55: Minnesota Vikings (1500) before week 1 → (1555) thru week 5
- +55: Denver Broncos (1484) before week 3 → (1539) thru week 8
more...
- +55: Washington Commanders (1482) before week 2 → (1537) thru week 8
- +53: Kansas City Chiefs (1500) before week 1 → (1553) thru week 7
- +53: Pittsburgh Steelers (1500) before week 1 → (1553) thru week 7
- +46: New Orleans Saints (1500) before week 1 → (1546) thru week 2
- +42: Philadelphia Eagles (1489) before week 7 → (1530) thru week 8
- +41: Green Bay Packers (1494) before week 2 → (1535) thru week 6
- +37: Chicago Bears (1497) before week 4 → (1533) thru week 6
- +36: Los Angeles Chargers (1500) before week 1 → (1536) thru week 2
- +36: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1498) before week 4 → (1535) thru week 6
- +33: Arizona Cardinals (1473) before week 7 → (1506) thru week 9
- +31: New York Jets (1485) before week 2 → (1516) thru week 3
- +31: Cincinnati Bengals (1483) before week 4 → (1513) thru week 7
- +28: Seattle Seahawks (1500) before week 1 → (1528) thru week 3
- +28: San Francisco 49ers (1500) before week 1 → (1528) thru week 6
- +25: Atlanta Falcons (1488) before week 2 → (1512) thru week 6
- +22: Houston Texans (1492) before week 5 → (1514) thru week 6
- +22: Los Angeles Rams (1472) before week 6 → (1495) thru week 9
- +20: Jacksonville Jaguars (1459) before week 7 → (1479) thru week 9
- +18: New York Giants (1475) before week 3 → (1493) thru week 5
- +16: Tennessee Titans (1462) before week 4 → (1478) thru week 6
- +15: Miami Dolphins (1442) before week 5 → (1456) thru week 9
- +13: Dallas Cowboys (1491) before week 4 → (1503) thru week 5
- +11: Indianapolis Colts (1489) before week 3 → (1500) thru week 7
- +9: New England Patriots (1427) before week 8 → (1436) thru week 9
- +7: Carolina Panthers (1456) before week 3 → (1463) thru week 4
- +7: Cleveland Browns (1461) before week 6 → (1468) thru week 8
- +0: Las Vegas Raiders (1445) before week 7 → (1445) thru week 8
- Worst Elo Collapse in 8 or Fewer Games:
- -91: New Orleans Saints (1546) before week 3 → (1455) thru week 9
- -85: Carolina Panthers (1500) before week 1 → (1415) thru week 8
- -82: New England Patriots (1509) before week 2 → (1427) thru week 7
- -61: Miami Dolphins (1502) before week 2 → (1442) thru week 4
- -58: Las Vegas Raiders (1491) before week 3 → (1434) thru week 9
more...
- -49: Tennessee Titans (1500) before week 1 → (1451) thru week 8
- -44: Seattle Seahawks (1528) before week 4 → (1484) thru week 6
- -44: Cleveland Browns (1500) before week 1 → (1456) thru week 7
- -44: Dallas Cowboys (1520) before week 2 → (1476) thru week 9
- -43: Arizona Cardinals (1516) before week 3 → (1473) thru week 6
- -42: New York Giants (1500) before week 1 → (1458) thru week 7
- -41: Jacksonville Jaguars (1500) before week 1 → (1459) thru week 6
- -37: New York Jets (1516) before week 4 → (1479) thru week 8
- -28: Buffalo Bills (1548) before week 4 → (1520) thru week 5
- -28: Los Angeles Rams (1500) before week 1 → (1472) thru week 5
- -26: Chicago Bears (1533) before week 7 → (1507) thru week 9
- -25: Minnesota Vikings (1555) before week 6 → (1530) thru week 8
- -24: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1535) before week 7 → (1511) thru week 8
- -23: Los Angeles Chargers (1536) before week 3 → (1512) thru week 4
- -20: Houston Texans (1512) before week 3 → (1492) thru week 4
- -18: Denver Broncos (1536) before week 8 → (1518) thru week 9
- -18: Philadelphia Eagles (1507) before week 4 → (1489) thru week 6
- -17: Cincinnati Bengals (1500) before week 1 → (1483) thru week 3
- -16: Washington Commanders (1500) before week 1 → (1484) thru week 2
- -14: Baltimore Ravens (1500) before week 1 → (1486) thru week 2
- -13: Atlanta Falcons (1512) before week 7 → (1499) thru week 8
- -12: Green Bay Packers (1536) before week 8 → (1524) thru week 9
- -11: Pittsburgh Steelers (1535) before week 4 → (1523) thru week 5
- -11: Indianapolis Colts (1500) before week 1 → (1489) thru week 2
- -10: San Francisco 49ers (1528) before week 7 → (1518) thru week 8
- -5: Kansas City Chiefs (1553) before week 8 → (1548) thru week 9
- -3: Detroit Lions (1500) before week 1 → (1497) thru week 2
- Strongest Average Opponent Rating:
- Detroit Lions: 1515
- Baltimore Ravens: 1510
- Minnesota Vikings: 1509
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1508
- Dallas Cowboys: 1508
more...
- New York Jets: 1506
- New York Giants: 1505
- Green Bay Packers: 1505
- Seattle Seahawks: 1504
- Arizona Cardinals: 1503
- Kansas City Chiefs: 1503
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 1503
- Cleveland Browns: 1503
- Carolina Panthers: 1501
- Houston Texans: 1501
- Los Angeles Rams: 1500
- Atlanta Falcons: 1500
- New Orleans Saints: 1499
- San Francisco 49ers: 1498
- Las Vegas Raiders: 1498
- Miami Dolphins: 1498
- Denver Broncos: 1498
- Indianapolis Colts: 1497
- Philadelphia Eagles: 1495
- Los Angeles Chargers: 1495
- Tennessee Titans: 1494
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 1493
- Chicago Bears: 1491
- Buffalo Bills: 1490
- Cincinnati Bengals: 1488
- Washington Commanders: 1488
- New England Patriots: 1483
- Weakest Average Opponent Rating:
- New England Patriots: 1483
- Washington Commanders: 1488
- Cincinnati Bengals: 1488
- Buffalo Bills: 1490
- Chicago Bears: 1491
more...
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 1493
- Tennessee Titans: 1494
- Los Angeles Chargers: 1495
- Philadelphia Eagles: 1495
- Indianapolis Colts: 1497
- Denver Broncos: 1498
- Miami Dolphins: 1498
- Las Vegas Raiders: 1498
- San Francisco 49ers: 1498
- New Orleans Saints: 1499
- Atlanta Falcons: 1500
- Los Angeles Rams: 1500
- Houston Texans: 1501
- Carolina Panthers: 1501
- Cleveland Browns: 1503
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 1503
- Kansas City Chiefs: 1503
- Arizona Cardinals: 1503
- Seattle Seahawks: 1504
- Green Bay Packers: 1505
- New York Giants: 1505
- New York Jets: 1506
- Dallas Cowboys: 1508
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1508
- Minnesota Vikings: 1509
- Baltimore Ravens: 1510
- Detroit Lions: 1515
- Strongest Average Beaten Opponent Rating:
- Baltimore Ravens: 1524
- Cleveland Browns: 1519
- Detroit Lions: 1514
- New Orleans Saints: 1510
- Minnesota Vikings: 1509
more...
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1507
- Dallas Cowboys: 1505
- Arizona Cardinals: 1505
- New York Jets: 1504
- Kansas City Chiefs: 1503
- Atlanta Falcons: 1501
- Seattle Seahawks: 1500
- New York Giants: 1500
- Los Angeles Rams: 1498
- Philadelphia Eagles: 1496
- Houston Texans: 1494
- New England Patriots: 1494
- Indianapolis Colts: 1492
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 1492
- San Francisco 49ers: 1491
- Los Angeles Chargers: 1490
- Buffalo Bills: 1490
- Green Bay Packers: 1488
- Denver Broncos: 1485
- Las Vegas Raiders: 1485
- Miami Dolphins: 1485
- Washington Commanders: 1482
- Chicago Bears: 1479
- Carolina Panthers: 1478
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 1471
- Cincinnati Bengals: 1469
- Tennessee Titans: 1449
- Weakest Average Beaten Opponent Rating:
- Tennessee Titans: 1449
- Cincinnati Bengals: 1469
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 1471
- Carolina Panthers: 1478
- Chicago Bears: 1479
more...
- Washington Commanders: 1482
- Miami Dolphins: 1485
- Las Vegas Raiders: 1485
- Denver Broncos: 1485
- Green Bay Packers: 1488
- Buffalo Bills: 1490
- Los Angeles Chargers: 1490
- San Francisco 49ers: 1491
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 1492
- Indianapolis Colts: 1492
- New England Patriots: 1494
- Houston Texans: 1494
- Philadelphia Eagles: 1496
- Los Angeles Rams: 1498
- New York Giants: 1500
- Seattle Seahawks: 1500
- Atlanta Falcons: 1501
- Kansas City Chiefs: 1503
- New York Jets: 1504
- Arizona Cardinals: 1505
- Dallas Cowboys: 1505
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1507
- Minnesota Vikings: 1509
- New Orleans Saints: 1510
- Detroit Lions: 1514
- Cleveland Browns: 1519
- Baltimore Ravens: 1524
↑ 2024 Season Model Accuracy
Week | Winners Picked | Running Total |
1 |
10-6 (10/16, 62.5%) |
10-6 (10/16, 62.5%) |
2 |
7-9 (7/16, 43.75%) |
17-15 (17/32, 53.12%) |
3 |
6-10 (6/16, 37.5%) |
23-25 (23/48, 47.92%) |
4 |
6-10 (6/16, 37.5%) |
29-35 (29/64, 45.31%) |
5 |
7-7 (7/14, 50.0%) |
36-42 (36/78, 46.15%) |
6 |
8-6 (8/14, 57.14%) |
44-48 (44/92, 47.83%) |
7 |
9-6 (9/15, 60.0%) |
53-54 (53/107, 49.53%) |
8 |
11-5 (11/16, 68.75%) |
64-59 (64/123, 52.03%) |
9 |
10-5 (10/15, 66.67%) |
74-64 (74/138, 53.62%) |
These ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing
sports betting decisions. This is a simple Elo model derived from a minimal data
set and it does not account for many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes.
The accuracy of this model for past seasons is not necessarily indicative of its
accuracy for the current or future seasons.
The data on this page is derived from
Wikipedia NFL teams' pages,
which are published under the
Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 4.0.
Therefore, these Elo rankings are also distributed under the
Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 4.0.
As per the license above, if you share or reproduce these
Elo ratings and power rankings, you must provide attribution
to this page and a link to the above license.
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