NFL Elo Power Rankings 2024

This is the 2024-ONLY "Blank Slate" page

The ratings and rankings on this page do not reflect season-ending ratings from the previous year. This page uses a new model for the 2024 season optimized for all teams starting each season at a 1500 rating. See this blog post for a comparison between this "blank slate" model and the regular model.

These ratings are likely to be less accurate for predicting future game outcomes than the regular model, especially toward the beginning of the season, but some people wanted to see them so here they are. See the regular 2024 ratings here.


This page shows week-by-week NFL power rankings, based on the Elo rating system. The Elo rating system is a fair way to judge to relative strength of competitors, and is therefore an objective way to create NFL power rankings.

The Elo rating system is most notably used for rating chess players. It can be used to calculate the expected winning percentage in a multi- game chess match, where players with similar ratings are expected to win or draw about 50% of games against each other. After a match, player ratings are adjusted based on their actual vs. expected winning percentage.

In applying Elo ratings to football, we consider each game as a series of drives. If one team "wins" most of the drives within a game, they'll likely end up with a large margin of victory. If both teams "win" the same number of drives, the margin of victory will likely be much more narrow. Therefore, team ratings can be used to calculate an expected margin of victory for the favored team. After a game, the two teams' Elo ratings are adjusted based on the actual vs. expected margin of victory. See the 2024 preseason blog post for more background.

But stepping back a bit, this is not meant to be an all-knowing reality simulator that can predict game outcomes for the rest of the season. This is merely a way to create power rankings without involving human bias. This Elo ranking implementation picks the winner correctly in more than 66.3% of games since 2012, which I think is pretty good for a simple Elo model. 66.3% nearly matches the 2022 season Vegas pick rate of 66.5% and does well compared to many "experts" on NFL Pickwatch. That being said, these ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing sports betting decisions. I cannot make claims about the usefulness and accuracy of this data with respect to gambling. The ratings are derived from a minimal data set. Many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes are not included in this Elo model.

Elo rating details:

2024 Updates
2023 Updates

Note: I'll try to update this page weekly during the NFL season, usually on Tuesdays. This data is somewhat manually updated so please bear with me and check back later if I haven't updated things as exepected.

Contents

← 2023 Season

Power Rankings During Week 3, 2024 Season

show prev/nexthide prev/next
RankTeamElo RatingRecord
1New Orleans Saints15462-0
prev: at Dallas Cowboys (1520): W 44-19: 1523+23→1546
this week: vs Philadelphia Eagles (1499): Win by 5 points
next: at Atlanta Falcons (1495): Slight favorite
2Los Angeles Chargers15362-0
prev: at Carolina Panthers (1477): W 26-3: 1514+22→1536
this week: at Pittsburgh Steelers (1522): Slight underdog
next: vs Kansas City Chiefs (1509): Slight favorite
3Buffalo Bills15292-0
prev: at Miami Dolphins (1502): W 31-10: 1506+23→1529
this week: vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1490): Slight favorite
next: at Baltimore Ravens (1486): Slight favorite
4Minnesota Vikings15292-0
prev: vs San Francisco 49ers (1515): W 23-17: 1523+6→1529
this week: vs Houston Texans (1512): Slight favorite
next: at Green Bay Packers (1500): Slight favorite
5Pittsburgh Steelers15222-0
prev: at Denver Broncos (1494): W 13-6: 1512+10→1522
this week: vs Los Angeles Chargers (1536): Slight favorite
next: at Indianapolis Colts (1489): Slight favorite
6Tampa Bay Buccaneers15222-0
prev: at Detroit Lions (1501): W 20-16: 1518+4→1522
this week: vs Denver Broncos (1484): Slight favorite
next: vs Philadelphia Eagles (1499): Slight favorite
7Arizona Cardinals15161-1
prev: vs Los Angeles Rams (1499): W 41-10: 1494+22→1516
this week: vs Detroit Lions (1497): Slight favorite
next: vs Washington Commanders (1484): Slight favorite
8 (+10)New York Jets1516 (+20)2-1
prev: vs New England Patriots (1505): W 24-3: 1496+20→1516
next: vs Denver Broncos (1484): Slight favorite
9 (-1)Houston Texans15122-0
prev: vs Chicago Bears (1508): W 19-13: 1505+7→1512
this week: at Minnesota Vikings (1529): Slight underdog
next: vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1490): Slight favorite
10 (-1)Seattle Seahawks15102-0
prev: at New England Patriots (1509): W 23-20(OT): 1506+4→1510
this week: vs Miami Dolphins (1480): Slight favorite
next: at Detroit Lions (1497): Slight underdog
11 (-1)San Francisco 49ers15101-1
prev: at Minnesota Vikings (1523): L 17-23: 1515-5→1510
this week: at Los Angeles Rams (1476): Slight favorite
next: vs New England Patriots (1485): Slight favorite
12 (-1)Kansas City Chiefs15092-0
prev: vs Cincinnati Bengals (1491): W 26-25: 1508+1→1509
this week: at Atlanta Falcons (1495): Tossup
next: at Los Angeles Chargers (1536): Slight underdog
13Chicago Bears15021-1
prev: at Houston Texans (1505): L 13-19: 1508-6→1502
this week: at Indianapolis Colts (1489): Slight underdog
next: vs Los Angeles Rams (1476): Slight favorite
14Green Bay Packers15001-1
prev: vs Indianapolis Colts (1495): W 16-10: 1494+6→1500
this week: at Tennessee Titans (1481): Tossup
next: vs Minnesota Vikings (1529): Slight underdog
15Philadelphia Eagles14991-1
prev: vs Atlanta Falcons (1488): L 21-22: 1506-7→1499
this week: at New Orleans Saints (1546): Lose by 5 points
next: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1522): Slight underdog
16Detroit Lions14971-1
prev: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1518): L 16-20: 1501-4→1497
this week: at Arizona Cardinals (1516): Slight underdog
next: vs Seattle Seahawks (1510): Slight favorite
17Dallas Cowboys14961-1
prev: vs New Orleans Saints (1523): L 19-44: 1520-24→1496
this week: vs Baltimore Ravens (1486): Slight favorite
next: at New York Giants (1475): Tossup
18 (+1)Atlanta Falcons14951-1
prev: at Philadelphia Eagles (1506): W 22-21: 1488+7→1495
this week: vs Kansas City Chiefs (1509): Tossup
next: vs New Orleans Saints (1546): Slight underdog
19 (+1)Las Vegas Raiders14911-1
prev: at Baltimore Ravens (1492): W 26-23: 1486+5→1491
this week: vs Carolina Panthers (1456): Slight favorite
next: vs Cleveland Browns (1488): Slight favorite
20 (+1)Cincinnati Bengals14900-2
prev: at Kansas City Chiefs (1508): L 25-26: 1491-1→1490
this week: vs Washington Commanders (1484): Slight favorite
next: at Carolina Panthers (1456): Slight favorite
21 (+1)Jacksonville Jaguars14900-2
prev: vs Cleveland Browns (1480): L 13-18: 1498-8→1490
this week: at Buffalo Bills (1529): Slight underdog
next: at Houston Texans (1512): Slight underdog
22 (+1)Indianapolis Colts14890-2
prev: at Green Bay Packers (1494): L 10-16: 1495-6→1489
this week: vs Chicago Bears (1502): Slight favorite
next: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1522): Slight underdog
23 (+1)Cleveland Browns14881-1
prev: at Jacksonville Jaguars (1498): W 18-13: 1480+8→1488
this week: vs New York Giants (1475): Slight favorite
next: at Las Vegas Raiders (1491): Slight underdog
24 (+1)Baltimore Ravens14860-2
prev: vs Las Vegas Raiders (1486): L 23-26: 1492-6→1486
this week: at Dallas Cowboys (1496): Slight underdog
next: vs Buffalo Bills (1529): Slight underdog
25 (-13)New England Patriots1485 (-20)1-2
prev: at New York Jets (1496): L 3-24: 1505-20→1485
next: at San Francisco 49ers (1510): Slight underdog
26Denver Broncos14840-2
prev: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1512): L 6-13: 1494-10→1484
this week: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1522): Slight underdog
next: at New York Jets (1516): Slight underdog
27Washington Commanders14841-1
prev: vs New York Giants (1477): W 21-18: 1482+2→1484
this week: at Cincinnati Bengals (1490): Slight underdog
next: at Arizona Cardinals (1516): Slight underdog
28Tennessee Titans14810-2
prev: vs New York Jets (1485): L 17-24: 1492-11→1481
this week: vs Green Bay Packers (1500): Tossup
next: at Miami Dolphins (1480): Slight underdog
29Miami Dolphins14801-1
prev: vs Buffalo Bills (1506): L 10-31: 1502-22→1480
this week: at Seattle Seahawks (1510): Slight underdog
next: vs Tennessee Titans (1481): Slight favorite
30Los Angeles Rams14760-2
prev: at Arizona Cardinals (1494): L 10-41: 1499-23→1476
this week: vs San Francisco 49ers (1510): Slight underdog
next: at Chicago Bears (1502): Slight underdog
31New York Giants14750-2
prev: at Washington Commanders (1482): L 18-21: 1477-2→1475
this week: at Cleveland Browns (1488): Slight underdog
next: vs Dallas Cowboys (1496): Tossup
32Carolina Panthers14560-2
prev: vs Los Angeles Chargers (1514): L 3-26: 1477-21→1456
this week: at Las Vegas Raiders (1491): Slight underdog
next: vs Cincinnati Bengals (1490): Slight underdog

Power Rankings After Week 2, 2024 Season

show prev/nexthide prev/next
RankTeamElo RatingRecord
1 (+1)New Orleans Saints1546 (+23)2-0
prev: at Dallas Cowboys (1520): W 44-19: 1523+23→1546
next: vs Philadelphia Eagles (1499): Win by 5 points
2 (+4)Los Angeles Chargers1536 (+22)2-0
prev: at Carolina Panthers (1477): W 26-3: 1514+22→1536
next: at Pittsburgh Steelers (1522): Slight underdog
3 (+8)Buffalo Bills1529 (+23)2-0
prev: at Miami Dolphins (1502): W 31-10: 1506+23→1529
next: vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1490): Slight favorite
4 (-3)Minnesota Vikings1529 (+6)2-0
prev: vs San Francisco 49ers (1515): W 23-17: 1523+6→1529
next: vs Houston Texans (1512): Slight favorite
5 (+2)Pittsburgh Steelers1522 (+10)2-0
prev: at Denver Broncos (1494): W 13-6: 1512+10→1522
next: vs Los Angeles Chargers (1536): Slight favorite
6 (-2)Tampa Bay Buccaneers1522 (+4)2-0
prev: at Detroit Lions (1501): W 20-16: 1518+4→1522
next: vs Denver Broncos (1484): Slight favorite
7 (+14)Arizona Cardinals1516 (+22)1-1
prev: vs Los Angeles Rams (1499): W 41-10: 1494+22→1516
next: vs Detroit Lions (1497): Slight favorite
8 (+6)Houston Texans1512 (+7)2-0
prev: vs Chicago Bears (1508): W 19-13: 1505+7→1512
next: at Minnesota Vikings (1529): Slight underdog
9 (+3)Seattle Seahawks1510 (+4)2-0
prev: at New England Patriots (1509): W 23-20(OT): 1506+4→1510
next: vs Miami Dolphins (1480): Slight favorite
10 (-5)San Francisco 49ers1510 (-5)1-1
prev: at Minnesota Vikings (1523): L 17-23: 1515-5→1510
next: at Los Angeles Rams (1476): Slight favorite
11 (-1)Kansas City Chiefs1509 (+1)2-0
prev: vs Cincinnati Bengals (1491): W 26-25: 1508+1→1509
next: at Atlanta Falcons (1495): Tossup
12 (-4)New England Patriots1505 (-4)1-1
prev: vs Seattle Seahawks (1506): L 20-23(OT): 1509-4→1505
next: at New York Jets (1496): Slight underdog
13 (-4)Chicago Bears1502 (-6)1-1
prev: at Houston Texans (1505): L 13-19: 1508-6→1502
next: at Indianapolis Colts (1489): Slight underdog
14 (+6)Green Bay Packers1500 (+6)1-1
prev: vs Indianapolis Colts (1495): W 16-10: 1494+6→1500
next: at Tennessee Titans (1481): Tossup
15 (-2)Philadelphia Eagles1499 (-7)1-1
prev: vs Atlanta Falcons (1488): L 21-22: 1506-7→1499
next: at New Orleans Saints (1546): Lose by 5 points
16Detroit Lions1497 (-4)1-1
prev: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1518): L 16-20: 1501-4→1497
next: at Arizona Cardinals (1516): Slight underdog
17 (-14)Dallas Cowboys1496 (-24)1-1
prev: vs New Orleans Saints (1523): L 19-44: 1520-24→1496
next: vs Baltimore Ravens (1486): Slight favorite
18 (+10)New York Jets1496 (+11)1-1
prev: at Tennessee Titans (1492): W 24-17: 1485+11→1496
next: vs New England Patriots (1505): Slight favorite
19 (+7)Atlanta Falcons1495 (+7)1-1
prev: at Philadelphia Eagles (1506): W 22-21: 1488+7→1495
next: vs Kansas City Chiefs (1509): Tossup
20 (+7)Las Vegas Raiders1491 (+5)1-1
prev: at Baltimore Ravens (1492): W 26-23: 1486+5→1491
next: vs Carolina Panthers (1456): Slight favorite
21 (+4)Cincinnati Bengals1490 (-1)0-2
prev: at Kansas City Chiefs (1508): L 25-26: 1491-1→1490
next: vs Washington Commanders (1484): Slight favorite
22 (-4)Jacksonville Jaguars1490 (-8)0-2
prev: vs Cleveland Browns (1480): L 13-18: 1498-8→1490
next: at Buffalo Bills (1529): Slight underdog
23 (-4)Indianapolis Colts1489 (-6)0-2
prev: at Green Bay Packers (1494): L 10-16: 1495-6→1489
next: vs Chicago Bears (1502): Slight favorite
24 (+6)Cleveland Browns1488 (+8)1-1
prev: at Jacksonville Jaguars (1498): W 18-13: 1480+8→1488
next: vs New York Giants (1475): Slight favorite
25 (-2)Baltimore Ravens1486 (-6)0-2
prev: vs Las Vegas Raiders (1486): L 23-26: 1492-6→1486
next: at Dallas Cowboys (1496): Slight underdog
26 (-4)Denver Broncos1484 (-10)0-2
prev: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1512): L 6-13: 1494-10→1484
next: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1522): Slight underdog
27 (+2)Washington Commanders1484 (+2)1-1
prev: vs New York Giants (1477): W 21-18: 1482+2→1484
next: at Cincinnati Bengals (1490): Slight underdog
28 (-4)Tennessee Titans1481 (-11)0-2
prev: vs New York Jets (1485): L 17-24: 1492-11→1481
next: vs Green Bay Packers (1500): Tossup
29 (-14)Miami Dolphins1480 (-22)1-1
prev: vs Buffalo Bills (1506): L 10-31: 1502-22→1480
next: at Seattle Seahawks (1510): Slight underdog
30 (-13)Los Angeles Rams1476 (-23)0-2
prev: at Arizona Cardinals (1494): L 10-41: 1499-23→1476
next: vs San Francisco 49ers (1510): Slight underdog
31 (+1)New York Giants1475 (-2)0-2
prev: at Washington Commanders (1482): L 18-21: 1477-2→1475
next: at Cleveland Browns (1488): Slight underdog
32 (-1)Carolina Panthers1456 (-21)0-2
prev: vs Los Angeles Chargers (1514): L 3-26: 1477-21→1456
next: at Las Vegas Raiders (1491): Slight underdog

Power Rankings After Week 1, 2024 Season

show prev/nexthide prev/next
RankTeamElo RatingRecord
1 (+20)Minnesota Vikings1523 (+23)1-0
prev: at New York Giants (1500): W 28-6: 1500+23→1523
next: vs San Francisco 49ers (1515): Slight favorite
2 (+21)New Orleans Saints1523 (+23)1-0
prev: vs Carolina Panthers (1500): W 47-10: 1500+23→1523
next: at Dallas Cowboys (1520): Slight underdog
3 (+6)Dallas Cowboys1520 (+20)1-0
prev: at Cleveland Browns (1500): W 33-17: 1500+20→1520
next: vs New Orleans Saints (1523): Slight favorite
4 (+26)Tampa Bay Buccaneers1518 (+18)1-0
prev: vs Washington Commanders (1500): W 37-20: 1500+18→1518
next: at Detroit Lions (1501): Slight underdog
5 (+23)San Francisco 49ers1515 (+15)1-0
prev: vs New York Jets (1500): W 32-19: 1500+15→1515
next: at Minnesota Vikings (1523): Slight underdog
6 (+12)Los Angeles Chargers1514 (+14)1-0
prev: vs Las Vegas Raiders (1500): W 22-10: 1500+14→1514
next: at Carolina Panthers (1477): Slight favorite
7 (+20)Pittsburgh Steelers1512 (+12)1-0
prev: at Atlanta Falcons (1500): W 18-10: 1500+12→1512
next: at Denver Broncos (1494): Tossup
8 (+14)New England Patriots1509 (+9)1-0
prev: at Cincinnati Bengals (1500): W 16-10: 1500+9→1509
next: vs Seattle Seahawks (1506): Slight favorite
9 (-3)Chicago Bears1508 (+8)1-0
prev: vs Tennessee Titans (1500): W 24-17: 1500+8→1508
next: at Houston Texans (1505): Slight underdog
10 (+6)Kansas City Chiefs1508 (+8)1-0
prev: vs Baltimore Ravens (1500): W 27-20: 1500+8→1508
next: vs Cincinnati Bengals (1491): Slight favorite
11 (-7)Buffalo Bills1506 (+6)1-0
prev: vs Arizona Cardinals (1500): W 34-28: 1500+6→1506
next: at Miami Dolphins (1502): Slight underdog
12 (+17)Seattle Seahawks1506 (+6)1-0
prev: vs Denver Broncos (1500): W 26-20: 1500+6→1506
next: at New England Patriots (1509): Slight underdog
13 (+13)Philadelphia Eagles1506 (+6)1-0
prev: at Green Bay Packers (1500): W 34-29: 1500+6→1506
next: vs Atlanta Falcons (1488): Slight favorite
14 (-1)Houston Texans1505 (+5)1-0
prev: at Indianapolis Colts (1500): W 29-27: 1500+5→1505
next: vs Chicago Bears (1508): Slight favorite
15 (+5)Miami Dolphins1502 (+2)1-0
prev: vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1500): W 20-17: 1500+2→1502
next: vs Buffalo Bills (1506): Slight favorite
16 (-5)Detroit Lions1501 (+1)1-0
prev: vs Los Angeles Rams (1500): W 26-20(OT): 1500+1→1501
next: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1518): Slight favorite
17 (+2)Los Angeles Rams1499 (-1)0-1
prev: at Detroit Lions (1500): L 20-26(OT): 1500-1→1499
next: at Arizona Cardinals (1494): Slight underdog
18 (-3)Jacksonville Jaguars1498 (-2)0-1
prev: at Miami Dolphins (1500): L 17-20: 1500-2→1498
next: vs Cleveland Browns (1480): Slight favorite
19 (-5)Indianapolis Colts1495 (-5)0-1
prev: vs Houston Texans (1500): L 27-29: 1500-5→1495
next: at Green Bay Packers (1494): Slight underdog
20 (-8)Green Bay Packers1494 (-6)0-1
prev: at Philadelphia Eagles (1500): L 29-34: 1500-6→1494
next: vs Indianapolis Colts (1495): Slight favorite
21 (-20)Arizona Cardinals1494 (-6)0-1
prev: at Buffalo Bills (1500): L 28-34: 1500-6→1494
next: vs Los Angeles Rams (1499): Slight favorite
22 (-12)Denver Broncos1494 (-6)0-1
prev: at Seattle Seahawks (1500): L 20-26: 1500-6→1494
next: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1512): Tossup
23 (-20)Baltimore Ravens1492 (-8)0-1
prev: at Kansas City Chiefs (1500): L 20-27: 1500-8→1492
next: vs Las Vegas Raiders (1486): Slight favorite
24 (+7)Tennessee Titans1492 (-8)0-1
prev: at Chicago Bears (1500): L 17-24: 1500-8→1492
next: vs New York Jets (1485): Slight favorite
25 (-18)Cincinnati Bengals1491 (-9)0-1
prev: vs New England Patriots (1500): L 10-16: 1500-9→1491
next: at Kansas City Chiefs (1508): Slight underdog
26 (-24)Atlanta Falcons1488 (-12)0-1
prev: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1500): L 10-18: 1500-12→1488
next: at Philadelphia Eagles (1506): Slight underdog
27 (-10)Las Vegas Raiders1486 (-14)0-1
prev: at Los Angeles Chargers (1500): L 10-22: 1500-14→1486
next: at Baltimore Ravens (1492): Slight underdog
28 (-3)New York Jets1485 (-15)0-1
prev: at San Francisco 49ers (1500): L 19-32: 1500-15→1485
next: at Tennessee Titans (1492): Slight underdog
29 (+3)Washington Commanders1482 (-18)0-1
prev: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1500): L 20-37: 1500-18→1482
next: vs New York Giants (1477): Slight favorite
30 (-22)Cleveland Browns1480 (-20)0-1
prev: vs Dallas Cowboys (1500): L 17-33: 1500-20→1480
next: at Jacksonville Jaguars (1498): Slight underdog
31 (-26)Carolina Panthers1477 (-23)0-1
prev: at New Orleans Saints (1500): L 10-47: 1500-23→1477
next: vs Los Angeles Chargers (1514): Slight underdog
32 (-8)New York Giants1477 (-23)0-1
prev: vs Minnesota Vikings (1500): L 6-28: 1500-23→1477
next: at Washington Commanders (1482): Slight underdog

Preseason Power Rankings, 2024 season:

show prev/nexthide prev/next
RankTeamElo RatingRecord
1Arizona Cardinals15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Buffalo Bills (1500): Slight underdog
2Atlanta Falcons15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1500): Slight favorite
3Baltimore Ravens15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Kansas City Chiefs (1500): Slight underdog
4Buffalo Bills15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Arizona Cardinals (1500): Slight favorite
5Carolina Panthers15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at New Orleans Saints (1500): Slight underdog
6Chicago Bears15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Tennessee Titans (1500): Slight favorite
7Cincinnati Bengals15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs New England Patriots (1500): Slight favorite
8Cleveland Browns15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Dallas Cowboys (1500): Slight favorite
9Dallas Cowboys15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Cleveland Browns (1500): Slight underdog
10Denver Broncos15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Seattle Seahawks (1500): Slight underdog
11Detroit Lions15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Los Angeles Rams (1500): Slight favorite
12Green Bay Packers15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Philadelphia Eagles (1500): Tossup
13Houston Texans15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Indianapolis Colts (1500): Slight underdog
14Indianapolis Colts15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Houston Texans (1500): Slight favorite
15Jacksonville Jaguars15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Miami Dolphins (1500): Slight underdog
16Kansas City Chiefs15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Baltimore Ravens (1500): Slight favorite
17Las Vegas Raiders15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Los Angeles Chargers (1500): Slight underdog
18Los Angeles Chargers15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Las Vegas Raiders (1500): Slight favorite
19Los Angeles Rams15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Detroit Lions (1500): Slight underdog
20Miami Dolphins15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1500): Slight favorite
21Minnesota Vikings15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at New York Giants (1500): Slight underdog
22New England Patriots15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Cincinnati Bengals (1500): Slight underdog
23New Orleans Saints15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Carolina Panthers (1500): Slight favorite
24New York Giants15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Minnesota Vikings (1500): Slight favorite
25New York Jets15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at San Francisco 49ers (1500): Slight underdog
26Philadelphia Eagles15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Green Bay Packers (1500): Tossup
27Pittsburgh Steelers15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Atlanta Falcons (1500): Slight underdog
28San Francisco 49ers15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs New York Jets (1500): Slight favorite
29Seattle Seahawks15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Denver Broncos (1500): Slight favorite
30Tampa Bay Buccaneers15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: vs Washington Commanders (1500): Slight favorite
31Tennessee Titans15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Chicago Bears (1500): Slight underdog
32Washington Commanders15000-0
prev: offseason parity reset: 1500+0→1500
next: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1500): Slight underdog



Team Summaries for 2024 Season

Arizona Cardinals

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1499 (+3 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1499  |  avg. lost to rating: 1500  |  avg. remaining rating: 1500
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
121at BUF(1500) L 28-34: -6→14949vs CHI17at LAR
27vs LAR(1499) W 41-10: +22→151610vs NYJ18vs SF
37vs DET11(bye)W
4vs WAS12at SEAD
5at SF13at MINC
6at GB14vs SEAS
7vs LAC15vs NE
8at MIA16at CAR

Atlanta Falcons

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (+9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1506  |  avg. lost to rating: 1500  |  avg. remaining rating: 1504
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
126vs PIT(1500) L 10-18: -12→14889vs DAL17at WAS
219at PHI(1506) W 22-21: +7→149510at NO18vs CAR
318vs KC11at DENW
4vs NO12(bye)D
5vs TB13vs LACC
6at CAR14at MINS
7vs SEA15at LV
8at TB16vs NYG

Baltimore Ravens

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1493 (-3 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1493  |  avg. remaining rating: 1502
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
123at KC(1500) L 20-27: -8→14929vs DEN17at HOU
225vs LV(1486) L 23-26: -6→148610vs CIN18vs CLE
324at DAL11at PITW
4vs BUF12at LACD
5at CIN13vs PHIC
6vs WAS14(bye)S
7at TB15at NYG
8at CLE16vs PIT

Buffalo Bills

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1501 (-2 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1501  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1496
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
111vs ARI(1500) W 34-28: +6→15069vs MIA17vs NYJ
23at MIA(1502) W 31-10: +23→152910at IND18at NE
33vs JAX11vs KCW
4at BAL12(bye)D
5at HOU13vs SFC
6at NYJ14at LARS
7vs TEN15at DET
8at SEA16vs NE

Carolina Panthers

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1507 (+18 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1507  |  avg. remaining rating: 1502
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
131at NO(1500) L 10-47: -23→14779vs NO17at TB
232vs LAC(1514) L 3-26: -21→145610at NYG18at ATL
332at LV11(bye)W
4vs CIN12vs KCD
5at CHI13vs TBC
6vs ATL14at PHIS
7at WAS15vs DAL
8at DEN16vs ARI

Chicago Bears

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (-1 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1500  |  avg. lost to rating: 1505  |  avg. remaining rating: 1498
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
19vs TEN(1500) W 24-17: +8→15089at ARI17vs SEA
213at HOU(1505) L 13-19: -6→150210vs NE18at GB
313at IND11vs GBW
4vs LAR12vs MIND
5vs CAR13at DETC
6at JAX14at SFS
7(bye)15at MIN
8at WAS16vs DET

Cincinnati Bengals

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1504 (+8 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1504  |  avg. remaining rating: 1493
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
125vs NE(1500) L 10-16: -9→14919vs LV17vs DEN
221at KC(1508) L 25-26: -1→149010at BAL18at PIT
320vs WAS11at LACW
4at CAR12(bye)D
5vs BAL13vs PITC
6at NYG14at DALS
7at CLE15at TEN
8vs PHI16vs CLE

Cleveland Browns

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1499 (+9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1498  |  avg. lost to rating: 1500  |  avg. remaining rating: 1500
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
130vs DAL(1500) L 17-33: -20→14809vs LAC17vs MIA
224at JAX(1498) W 18-13: +8→14881018at BAL
323vs NYG11at NOW
4at LV12vs PITD
5at WAS13at DENC
6at PHI14at PITS
7vs CIN15vs KC
8vs BAL16at CIN

Dallas Cowboys

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1511 (+1 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1500  |  avg. lost to rating: 1523  |  avg. remaining rating: 1494
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
13at CLE(1500) W 33-17: +20→15209at ATL17at PHI
217vs NO(1523) L 19-44: -24→149610vs PHI18vs WAS
317vs BAL11vs HOUW
4at NYG12at WASD
5at PIT13vs NYGC
6vs DET14vs CINS
7(bye)15at CAR
8at SF16vs TB

Denver Broncos

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1506 (+9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1506  |  avg. remaining rating: 1504
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
122at SEA(1500) L 20-26: -6→14949at BAL17at CIN
226vs PIT(1512) L 6-13: -10→148410at KC18vs KC
326at TB11vs ATLW
4at NYJ12at LVD
5vs LV13vs CLEC
6vs LAC14(bye)S
7at NO15vs IND
8vs CAR16at LAC

Detroit Lions

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1509 (+9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1500  |  avg. lost to rating: 1518  |  avg. remaining rating: 1506
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
116vs LAR(1500) W 26-20: +1→15019at GB17at SF
216vs TB(1518) L 16-20: -4→149710at HOU18vs MIN
316at ARI11vs JAXW
4vs SEA12at INDD
5(bye)13vs CHIC
6at DAL14vs GBS
7at MIN15vs BUF
8vs TEN16at CHI

Green Bay Packers

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1497 (+0 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1495  |  avg. lost to rating: 1500  |  avg. remaining rating: 1505
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
120at PHI(1500) L 29-34: -6→14949vs DET17at MIN
214vs IND(1495) W 16-10: +6→150010(bye)18vs CHI
314at TEN11at CHIW
4vs MIN12vs SFD
5at LAR13vs MIAC
6vs ARI14at DETS
7vs HOU15at SEA
8at JAX16vs NO

Houston Texans

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1504 (+1 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1504  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1497
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
114at IND(1500) W 29-27: +5→15059at NYJ17vs BAL
28vs CHI(1508) W 19-13: +7→151210vs DET18at TEN
39at MIN11at DALW
4vs JAX12vs TEND
5vs BUF13at JAXC
6at NE14(bye)S
7at GB15vs MIA
8vs IND16at KC

Indianapolis Colts

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1497 (0 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1497  |  avg. remaining rating: 1498
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
119vs HOU(1500) L 27-29: -5→14959at MIN17at NYG
223at GB(1494) L 10-16: -6→148910vs BUF18vs JAX
322vs CHI11at NYJW
4vs PIT12vs DETD
5at JAX13at NEC
6at TEN14(bye)S
7vs MIA15at DEN
8at HOU16vs TEN

Jacksonville Jaguars

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1490 (-9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1490  |  avg. remaining rating: 1501
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
118at MIA(1500) L 17-20: -2→14989at PHI17vs TEN
222vs CLE(1480) L 13-18: -8→149010vs MIN18at IND
321at BUF11at DETW
4at HOU12(bye)D
5vs IND13vs HOUC
6at CHI14at TENS
7at NE15vs NYJ
8vs GB16at LV

Kansas City Chiefs

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1496 (-8 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1496  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1507
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
110vs BAL(1500) W 27-20: +8→15089vs TB17at PIT
211vs CIN(1491) W 26-25: +1→150910vs DEN18at DEN
312at ATL11at BUFW
4at LAC12at CARD
5vs NO13vs LVC
6(bye)14vs LACS
7at SF15at CLE
8at LV16vs HOU

Las Vegas Raiders

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1496 (+3 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1492  |  avg. lost to rating: 1500  |  avg. remaining rating: 1499
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
127at LAC(1500) L 10-22: -14→14869at CIN17at NO
220at BAL(1492) W 26-23: +5→149110(bye)18vs LAC
319vs CAR11at MIAW
4vs CLE12vs DEND
5at DEN13at KCC
6vs PIT14at TBS
7at LAR15vs ATL
8vs KC16vs JAX

Los Angeles Chargers

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1489 (-18 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1489  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1501
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
16vs LV(1500) W 22-10: +14→15149at CLE17at NE
22at CAR(1477) W 26-3: +22→153610vs TEN18at LV
32at PIT11vs CINW
4vs KC12vs BALD
5(bye)13at ATLC
6at DEN14at KCS
7at ARI15vs TB
8vs NO16vs DEN

Los Angeles Rams

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1497 (-3 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1497  |  avg. remaining rating: 1509
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
117at DET(1500) L 20-26: -1→14999at SEA17vs ARI
230at ARI(1494) L 10-41: -23→147610vs MIA18vs SEA
330vs SF11at NEW
4at CHI12vs PHID
5vs GB13at NOC
614vs BUFS
7vs LV15at SF
8vs MIN16at NYJ

Miami Dolphins

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1503 (+2 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1500  |  avg. lost to rating: 1506  |  avg. remaining rating: 1500
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
115vs JAX(1500) W 20-17: +2→15029at BUF17at CLE
229vs BUF(1506) L 10-31: -22→148010at LAR18at NYJ
329at SEA11vs LVW
4vs TEN12vs NED
5at NE13at GBC
6(bye)14vs NYJS
7at IND15at HOU
8vs ARI16vs SF

Minnesota Vikings

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1508 (-4 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1508  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1499
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
11at NYG(1500) W 28-6: +23→15239vs IND17vs GB
24vs SF(1515) W 23-17: +6→152910at JAX18at DET
34vs HOU11at TENW
4at GB12at CHID
5at NYJ13vs ARIC
6(bye)14vs ATLS
7vs DET15vs CHI
8at LAR16at SEA

New England Patriots

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1501 (-4 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1500  |  avg. lost to rating: 1501  |  avg. remaining rating: 1503
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
18at CIN(1500) W 16-10: +9→15099at TEN17vs LAC
212vs SEA(1506) L 20-23: -4→150510at CHI18vs BUF
325at NYJ(1496) L 3-24: -20→148511vs LARW
4at SF12at MIAD
5vs MIA13vs INDC
6vs HOU14(bye)S
7at JAX15at ARI
8vs NYJ16at BUF

New Orleans Saints

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1510 (-1 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1510  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1495
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
12vs CAR(1500) W 47-10: +23→15239at CAR17vs LV
21at DAL(1520) W 44-19: +23→154610vs ATL18at TB
31vs PHI11vs CLEW
4at ATL12(bye)D
5at KC13vs LARC
6vs TB14at NYGS
7vs DEN15vs WAS
8at LAC16at GB

New York Giants

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1491 (+2 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1491  |  avg. remaining rating: 1499
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
132vs MIN(1500) L 6-28: -23→14779vs WAS17vs IND
231at WAS(1482) L 18-21: -2→147510at CAR18at PHI
331at CLE11(bye)W
4vs DAL12vs TBD
5at SEA13at DALC
6vs CIN14vs NOS
7vs PHI15vs BAL
8at PIT16at ATL

New York Jets

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1499 (+5 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1498  |  avg. lost to rating: 1500  |  avg. remaining rating: 1502
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
128at SF(1500) L 19-32: -15→14859vs HOU17at BUF
218at TEN(1492) W 24-17: +11→149610at ARI18vs MIA
38vs NE(1505) W 24-3: +20→151611vs INDW
4vs DEN12(bye)D
5at MIN13vs SEAC
6vs BUF14at MIAS
7at PIT15at JAX
8at NE16vs LAR

Philadelphia Eagles

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1494 (-9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1500  |  avg. lost to rating: 1488  |  avg. remaining rating: 1492
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
113at GB(1500) W 34-29: +6→15069vs JAX17vs DAL
215vs ATL(1488) L 21-22: -7→149910at DAL18vs NYG
315at NO11vs WASW
4at TB12at LARD
5(bye)13at BALC
6vs CLE14vs CARS
7at NYG15vs PIT
8at CIN16at WAS

Pittsburgh Steelers

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1497 (-9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1497  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1495
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
17at ATL(1500) W 18-10: +12→15129(bye)17vs KC
25at DEN(1494) W 13-6: +10→152210at WAS18vs CIN
35vs LAC11vs BALW
4at IND12at CLED
5vs DAL13at CINC
6at LV14vs CLES
7vs NYJ15at PHI
8vs NYG16at BAL

San Francisco 49ers

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1511 (+4 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1500  |  avg. lost to rating: 1523  |  avg. remaining rating: 1502
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
15vs NYJ(1500) W 32-19: +15→15159(bye)17vs DET
210at MIN(1523) L 17-23: -5→151010at TB18at ARI
311at LAR11vs SEAW
4vs NE12at GBD
5vs ARI13at BUFC
6at SEA14vs CHIS
7vs KC15vs LAR
8vs DAL16at MIA

Seattle Seahawks

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1504 (+1 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1504  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1502
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
112vs DEN(1500) W 26-20: +6→15069vs LAR17at CHI
29at NE(1509) W 23-20: +4→151010(bye)18at LAR
310vs MIA11at SFW
4at DET12vs ARID
5vs NYG13at NYJC
6vs SF14at ARIS
7at ATL15vs GB
8vs BUF16vs MIN

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1501 (-9 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1501  |  avg. lost to rating: -  |  avg. remaining rating: 1499
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
14vs WAS(1500) W 37-20: +18→15189at KC17vs CAR
26at DET(1501) W 20-16: +4→152210vs SF18vs NO
36vs DEN11(bye)W
4vs PHI12at NYGD
5at ATL13at CARC
6at NO14vs LVS
7vs BAL15at LAC
8vs ATL16at DAL

Tennessee Titans

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1492 (-4 net)  |  avg. beat rating: -  |  avg. lost to rating: 1492  |  avg. remaining rating: 1501
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
124at CHI(1500) L 17-24: -8→14929vs NE17at JAX
228vs NYJ(1485) L 17-24: -11→148110at LAC18vs HOU
328vs GB11vs MINW
4at MIA12at HOUD
5(bye)13at WASC
6vs IND14vs JAXS
7at BUF15vs CIN
8at DET16at IND

Washington Commanders

reg. season: avg. opp. rating: 1489 (-2 net)  |  avg. beat rating: 1477  |  avg. lost to rating: 1500  |  avg. remaining rating: 1496
WkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcomeWkRkOutcome
129at TB(1500) L 20-37: -18→14829at NYG17vs ATL
227vs NYG(1477) W 21-18: +2→148410vs PIT18at DAL
327at CIN11at PHIW
4at ARI12vs DALD
5vs CLE13vs TENC
6at BAL14(bye)S
7vs CAR15at NO
8vs CHI16vs PHI



2024 Season Stats and Tidbits



2024 Season Model Accuracy

WeekWinners PickedRunning Total
1 10/16 (62.5%) 10/16 (62.5%)
2 7/16 (43.75%) 17/32 (53.12%)
3 1/1 (100.0%) 18/33 (54.55%)


These ratings and rankings are not intended for use in informing sports betting decisions. I cannot make claims about the usefulness and accuracy of this data with respect to gambling. The ratings are derived from a minimal data set. Many relevant factors that may impact game outcomes are not included in this Elo model.

The data on this page is derived from Wikipedia NFL teams' pages, which are published under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 4.0. Therefore, these Elo rankings are also distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 4.0.

As per the license above, if you share or reproduce these Elo ratings and power rankings, you must provide attribution to this page and a link to the above license.

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